Iran war at 6 months: Who gained, who lost the most economically

Motorcyclists ride past a billboard depicting US President Donald Trump inside a catering container in downtown Tehran, Iran

Six months into the war between the US, Israel and Iran, some of the worst fears for the global economy have failed to materialise, despite the conflict driving up energy and food costs, disrupting travel and trade, and adding to pressure on already fragile supply chains.Oil prices surged after the US and Israel began military action against Iran on February 28, with Brent crude rising from around $72 a barrel before the war to nearly $120 at its peak as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Prices have since eased, although they remain above pre-war levels.Financial markets, meanwhile, have recovered sharply from the initial shock. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have all posted strong gains since their late-March lows, helped in part by continued optimism around artificial intelligence.The International Monetary Fund said in July that the global economy was being shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: the war was weighing on growth, while enthusiasm around AI was providing an offset.The economic impact, however, has been uneven. Higher energy and transport costs have hit airlines, motorists and consumers, while rising fertiliser prices have added pressure on farmers and food security. At the same time, the crisis has accelerated interest in electric vehicles, renewable energy and other alternatives to imported fossil fuelsHere is a look at the winners and losers from the war’s economic fallout:

Winners

1. Investors who stayed calmGlobal stock markets initially plunged as investors reacted to the uncertainty created by the conflict. The Dow and Nasdaq entered correction territory, while the S&P 500 recorded its worst monthly performance since 2022.Markets have since staged a strong recovery. From their late-March lows, the Dow has gained nearly 19 per cent, the S&P 500 almost 22 per cent and the Nasdaq about 27 per cent, reported AP.The rebound suggests that investors have, so far, looked past the war’s economic disruption, particularly as strong expectations around AI have supported equity markets.“So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” investment strategist Michael Ashley Schulman of Cerity Partners said.2. Clean energy and electric vehiclesThe disruption to oil supplies and higher fuel prices have strengthened the case for reducing dependence on fossil fuels.Electric vehicle sales have recorded sharp increases in several markets. EV sales rose 110 per cent year-on-year in Singapore, 180 per cent in New Zealand and 300 per cent in Colombia, according to the figures cited in the report.The International Energy Agency expects EVs to account for 29 per cent of global vehicle sales in 2026, up from 25 per cent in 2025.Several countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf energy supplies have also accelerated plans for renewable energy, nuclear power, domestic refining and solar capacity.“The crisis is forcing investment faster than any policy framework would have,” said Scott Lehmann, a supply-chain expert at Sphera, as quoted by AP.3. US defence contractorsThe war has also boosted demand for military equipment and defence technology.Companies involved in missile defence, drones, satellites and other military systems have secured contracts linked to the US response to the conflict. Among them are Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman and other defence suppliers.Some companies linked to the investment portfolios of members of President Donald Trump’s family have also reportedly benefited from increased defence spending.For instance, Military contractor Powerus, which is set to go public with Eric and Donald Trump Jr. involved, has secured a US Air Force contract worth up to $90 million to supply interceptors for Iranian drones. Private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr joined shortly after his father’s reelection, also holds stakes in defence companies benefiting from increased military demand. These include Anduril, which received US approval for up to $2 billion in drone-interceptor sales to Kuwait.Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is also providing satellite services to support US drone operations against Iran, and rocket maker Firehawk Defense, which has secured Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads to replenish US military stocks, are also among the companies benefiting.The White House has said there are no conflicts of interest and that the president acts in the interests of the American public.

Losers

1. Airlines and travellersThe biggest immediate economic casualty has been oil-dependent transport.With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Brent crude climbed from about $72 a barrel before the war to nearly $120. Although prices have fallen from that peak, they remain about 20 per cent above pre-war levels.Higher fuel costs have pushed airlines to raise fares, increase baggage fees and introduce fuel surcharges, while some carriers have reduced flights or reconsidered plans to expand routes.The International Air Transport Association expects jet fuel prices to average 70 per cent higher in 2026 than in 2025.“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” said Brett House, an economist at Columbia University.2. Farmers and the fight against hungerHigher energy costs have also fed into fertiliser prices, putting additional pressure on farmers and raising concerns about food security.Fertiliser prices peaked in April at 44 per cent above pre-war levels, according to the World Bank’s price index.Some farmers have responded by reducing fertiliser use, potentially affecting future crop yields. The disruption has been particularly significant for countries in Asia and Africa that depend heavily on imported fertiliser.The UN World Food Programme has warned that higher food and transport costs could push millions more people towards hunger.“An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” said Carl Skau, the WFP’s acting executive director.3. Consumers and import-dependent economiesHigher oil prices have consequences well beyond petrol and airline tickets. Energy costs feed into the prices of manufactured goods, food, transport and other consumer products.Countries particularly dependent on oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf have faced greater exposure to the disruption, while higher shipping and insurance costs have added to the pressure on global trade.The conflict has therefore created a split economic picture: financial markets have largely recovered, while households and businesses exposed to energy, transport and food costs continue to feel the impact.